To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at AviChina Industry & Technology (HKG:2357) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

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Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for AviChina Industry & Technology:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.056 = CN¥5.5b ÷ (CN¥186b - CN¥87b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Thus, AviChina Industry & Technology has an ROCE of 5.6%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 9.0%.

View our latest analysis for AviChina Industry & Technology

In the above chart we have measured AviChina Industry & Technology's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for AviChina Industry & Technology .

The Trend Of ROCE

When we looked at the ROCE trend at AviChina Industry & Technology, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 5.6% from 7.5% five years ago. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.

On a side note, AviChina Industry & Technology's current liabilities are still rather high at 47% of total assets. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.

The Bottom Line

In summary, we're somewhat concerned by AviChina Industry & Technology's diminishing returns on increasing amounts of capital. However the stock has delivered a 56% return to shareholders over the last five years, so investors might be expecting the trends to turn around. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.

While AviChina Industry & Technology doesn't shine too bright in this respect, it's still worth seeing if the company is trading at attractive prices. You can find that out with our FREE intrinsic value estimation for 2357 on our platform.

While AviChina Industry & Technology isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.