智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，将中远海控(01919)2025财年每股盈利预测下调38%，H股目标价由13港元上调至14港元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。该行称，今年红海海运服务恢复的可能性低，运费率暴跌的情况不太可能发生。不过美国关税的不确定性仍是今年的主要拖累因素，投资者对运费率前景的期望低，指其前景审慎正面。该行将今年海运运输量同比增长预测，由中单位数下调至低单位数(即与行业增长率一致)，同时预计中远海控的运费率将同比下降低双位数。
大和预计，中远海控今年盈利可能录得同比下降，预计净现金约1,000亿元人民币，约占公司交易股权价值的50%。该行亦料，中远海控将维持其2025至2027财年股东回报计划中50%的最高分红比例，提供8%的股息收益率。在运费率预期疲弱及股价年内表现不佳的背景下，该行认为当前水平具有吸引力的风险回报比。
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