Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】交银国际维持蒙牛乳业(02319)“买入”评级 指原奶价格下降及经营效率提升利好其获利能力

金吾财讯
Mar 28, 2025

金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研指，蒙牛乳业(02319)2024 年收入下滑10.1%。得益于原奶价格下行，毛利率同比增2.4个百分点。经营利润率较去年同期大幅提升190个基点至8.2%，超出市场预期及2024年初制定之经营目标。剔除一次性影响后的经调整净利为44.35亿元人民币(下同)，同比降7.8%，公司依据分红承诺以此为基准作分红，并提升分红比例至45%。该行指，公司液态奶/冰淇淋/奶粉/奶酪销售额同比下滑 11%/14%/13%/1%，占全年销售额的82%/6%/4%/5%。2024 年经营利润率显着提升并创历史新高，主要得益于：1）原奶价格下行；2）低温优格、鲜奶、奶酪及奶粉经营利润率较2023年大幅提升；3）持续强化营运效率，管理费用率严格控制在4.8%（与2023年一致）。未来三年，管理阶层坚持年均30-50个基点的改善目标。该行表示，管理层预期2025年收入低个位数增长。公司目标维持市场份额之优势，销售费用率或提升。管理费用率可望持续优化。同时，管理层给予每年总分红金额不降低（不低于目前约20亿元水平）之分红目标。该行认为原奶价格下降及经营效率显着提升双重利好于获利能力，经营目标可期。上调公司目标价至22.91港元，维持“买入”评级。

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