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　　建银国际发布研报称，蒙牛乳业（02319）2024年因乳制品需求疲弱，集团收入及所有主要产品的销售额均下跌。尽管如此，核心利润率仍然强劲。该行上调集团2025-2026年盈测分别9%及7%，以反映较佳的毛利率。同时上调目标价8.4%，由19.1港元升至20.7港元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。

　　报告表示，尽管蒙牛乳业销售复苏缓慢，但盈利能力较佳。该行预计集团2025年收入将恢复增长。年初至今原奶价格的下跌对虽对毛利率有利，但也意味着短期内竞争格局的激烈。

　　该行认为，蒙牛乳业有能力通过降低一般和管理费用、降低物流及仓储成本，以提高供应链效率，该行上调集团经调整毛利率0.2个百分点至8.9%。相信集团有望实现其三年目标，即毛利率平均每年增0.3-0.5个百分点。

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