巴克莱分析师团队周三将2025年标普500指数目标点位从6600点大幅下调至5900点，为当前华尔街主要投行中的最低预期。

　　此次调整主要基于两大关键因素：特朗普关税冲击，以及宏观数据恶化。

　　据巴克莱银行测算，特朗普新一轮关税可能导致标普成分股2025年的每股收益（EPS）减少8.5至12美分，较原预期下调6%-9%。工业（平均关税暴露度14%）、消费品（11%）板块成重灾区。

　　宏观数据恶化，也导致该行对美股前景悲观。

　　巴克莱内部活动指数连续3个月低于枯荣线小企业乐观指数跌至2012年以来最低水平。

　　巴克莱银行的最新预测，意味着标普指数较当前水平隐含约15%下行空间，较摩根士丹利（6200点）、高盛（6500点）等同行目标低5%-10%。

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