金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，敏实集团(00425)2H24收入低于该行此前预测9%，主要受中国的日系品牌业务拖累，但毛利率高于该行预测1.7个百分点，主要受益于电池盒和金属及饰条业务毛利率的提升。经营利润和净利润均符合该行此前的预期，自由现金流从FY23的1.3亿元增长到FY24的13.6亿元。该行指，中期仍有较大业务增长空间，叠加运营效率的提升有助利润的持续增长：公司披露了FY24电池盒业务净利率达到13.8%，自由现金流1.4亿，并贡献了32%的集团净利润，这已充分说明即使在去年欧洲电动车销量出现下滑的情况下，其电池盒业务已经进入收获期。该行预计电池盒的利润率今年有望在资本支出下降的情况下继续提升。同时，包括密封件、副车架和智能集成外饰在内的新产品有望助力敏实在FY26-27的收入增长，而人形机器人以及eVTOL的零部件或从FY28开始贡献可观的收入。该行预测敏实FY25收入同比增长13%至262亿元，毛利率略微下滑至28.6%，销管研费用率同比收窄0.7个百分点，净利润同比增长17%至27亿元。维持“买入”评级，上调目标价至26港元（前值：21港元），基于10x FY25 P/E。
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