US natgas prices climb 3% on record LNG flows, lower daily output

Reuters
29 Mar
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices climb 3% on record LNG flows, lower daily output

US gas output on track to hit monthly record in March

US LNG export feedgas set to hit monthly record in March

US gas inventories on track for rare build in March

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Friday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a decline in daily output.

On its first day as the front month, gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.5 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $4.065 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 19.

For the week, the contract was up about 2% after sliding about 3% in the prior week.

Mild weather and low demand through mid-April should allow utilities to keep adding gas to storage in coming weeks with some analysts saying stockpiles were on track to increase in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.

Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 5% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Mild weather and ample hydropower in the U.S. West caused spot power prices at the South Path 15 (SP-15) hub W-SP15-IDX in Southern California to turn negative for the first time since June 2024. Power prices at SP-15 first fell into negative territory in 2024, averaging below zero on 18 days last year, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2001.

Next-day prices at SP-15 fell to minus $5.23 per megawatt hour. That compares with an average of $28.05 so far in 2025, $31.30 in 2024 and an average of $58.87 during the prior five years (2019-2023).

At the Mid-Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX in Oregon, meanwhile, next-day power prices dropped to $6.57 per MWh, their lowest since May 2023.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in March from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.2 bcfd on Friday. Traders noted preliminary data was often changed later in the day.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 12.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 108.5 bcfd this week to 102.9 bcfd next week before edging up to 103.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana entered service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas traded around $13 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Mar 28 Forecast

Week ended Mar 21 Actual

Year ago Mar 28

Five-year average

Mar 28

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+15

+37

-37

-13

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,759

1,744

2,264

1,853

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-5.1%

-6.5%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.84

3.93

1.75

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

13.01

12.98

8.54

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.18

13.20

8.95

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

184

181

233

219

207

U.S. GFS CDDs

31

34

31

23

22

U.S. GFS TDDs

215

215

264

242

229

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

106.1

106.4

106.0

101.6

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.8

8.8

8.1

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.8

115.2

114.1

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

4.0

3.4

3.4

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.0

6.3

6.3

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

16.0

16.1

16.1

12.9

11.8

U.S. Commercial

10.4

10.4

8.9

11.3

11.8

U.S. Residential

15.7

15.1

12.5

16.9

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

24.1

26.1

25.4

28.6

27.5

U.S. Industrial

23.5

23.7

23.0

24.3

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.2

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

81.2

82.8

77.2

88.6

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

107.1

108.5

102.9

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

95

97

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

93

95

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

93

94

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Mar 21

Week ended Mar 14

2024

2023

2022

Wind

14

18

11

10

11

Solar

7

7

5

4

3

Hydro

7

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

32

42

41

38

Coal

16

14

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

20

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.88

3.84

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.83

3.14

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.20

2.34

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.78

3.09

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.00

3.27

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.05

3.51

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.15

2.51

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.54

0.47

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

2.01

2.04

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

40.67

40.67

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

39.16

49.92

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

6.57

13.13

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

9.88

16.00

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

-5.23

4.52

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Rod Nickel)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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