Nvidia Stock Is Suffering. How Trump Tariffs Could Bring Relief for Investors

Dow Jones
02 Apr

Nvidia has gotten off to a bad start to the year. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday could mark a turning point.

Nvidia shares were down 1.6% at $108.35 in premarket trading. The stock rose 1.6% on Tuesday, breaking a five-day losing streak. 

The stock has been moving down with the market amid concerns about U.S. imposed tariffs ahead of the Wednesday deadline on the new levies. Nvidia has decline 18% this year through Tuesday’s close. 

Nvidia is now significantly more cheaply valued than in recent years. Its shares trade at a multiple of 23 times its forecast earnings over the next 12 months, compared with an average multiple of 40 times over the past five years, according to FactSet. 

There is plenty of evidence of strong demand for its chips to power artificial-intelligence technology as companies such as ChatGPT-maker OpenAI report booming demand for their AI products. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Tuesday said the company was struggling to deal with the strain on its infrastructure from the popularity of its image-generation tool and said the company was looking for access to third-party chips.

However, the market is unlikely to focus on Nvidia’s potential positives until there is more clarity about tariffs on semiconductor imports.

Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes noted that consensus estimates for Nvidia’s 2026 earnings have been revised up 37% since the beginning of July 2024. However, the stock is trading as if the market has considerable doubts about Nvidia’s ability to meet those expectations, which the analyst attributes to geopolitical concerns.

“There was a time in the AI trading game that investors were willing to listen to our views on ‘future earnings power,’ but things changed fast,” Reitzes wrote in a research note Wednesday.

It’s still unclear whether there will be any news on sector-specific duties—including on chips—alongside the broader tariff announcement on Wednesday. Trump has previously said levies on semiconductors would follow “down the road” from his plan for reciprocal levies.

If chips are excluded from the slate of tariffs there could be a relief rally in Nvidia shares—but only if Trump doesn’t hint at future action on semiconductors.

Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1% in premarket trading and Broadcom was flat.

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