金吾财讯 | 建银国际研报指，金价在2025年第一季度收于3,124美元/盎司的历史新高，创近四十年来最佳单季表现。主要受以下因素驱动：1)地缘政治紧张及关税引发的市场不确定性催生避险需求；2)美国通胀风险推升对冲需求；3)市场预期美联储降息带动黄金ETF资金流入。港股上市黄金股一季度涨幅达22-35%，跑赢港股及全球市场，亦优于全球初级黄金矿商ETF表现。该行指，尽管金价已创历史新高，但在当前美国政府执政下地缘政治不确定性加剧及通胀压力持续的背景下，该行预计上涨动能将延续。叠加美元走弱、美债收益率下降及预期通过降息应对关税可能引发的经济放缓，构成该行认为黄金将持续受投资者青睐的核心逻辑。供应端方面，勘探项目及初级勘探公司尚未出现大规模投资潮，显示矿产供应短期内难以显著增加，反而为价格前景带来下行风险。基于此，该行将2025/2026年金价预测分别上调9%/11%至3,115/3,300美元/盎司（同比+30%/6%）。行业首选标的为山东黄金(01787)及招金矿业(01818)，均维持"跑赢大市"评级。
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