金吾财讯 | 建银国际研报指，国家统计局数据显示，受消费需求低迷影响，中国1-2月啤酒产量同比下降4.9%，百威亚太(01876)亦未能幸免。该行预计其2025年一季度在中国维持低库存状态，可能导致批发渠道销量同比出现个位数中段下滑。基于销量下降及产品组合不利变化，该行预计西区亚太收入将下降10.4%（销量/均价分别下降9.0%/1.5%）。东区亚太方面，得益于百威亚太强大的品牌和产品组合，韩国即饮渠道和家庭渠道市场份额有所扩大。尽管2025年一季度表现疲软，但不会改变该行关于销量自3月起环比改善的预测，在中国市场尤其如此，支撑因素包括低基数效应及百威亚太重夺市场份额的策略。该行预计公司整体销售额将增长1.8%，其中销量持平，均价提升2.3%。产品提价、大麦成本环境利好及运营杠杆效应支撑该行对2025财年EBITDA利润率扩大1.4个百分点至30.3%的预测。该行维持2025/26财年盈利预测及10.0倍2025财年EV/EBITDA估值倍数不变，目标价维持9.50港元，因预期百威亚太新管理团队将推动战略转型，稳定中国业务并在中期实现更好的盈利增长。维持“跑赢大市”评级。
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