金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，预计阿里巴巴(09988)4QFY25（财年截于3月）将实现与市场一致预期相符的收入增长及经调整EBITA表现。核心电商业务方面，在健康增长的GMV及货币化率提升（得益于技术服务费增量收取与"全站推"渗透率提高）驱动下，淘天集团客户管理收入有望保持稳健增长，盈利能力持续改善。云业务收入同比增速有望如预期般进一步加速，主要受益于公有云收入稳健增长及AI云服务增量贡献。国际数字商业集团（AIDC）板块预计将如预期于FY26实现首季盈利，非核心业务有望在1-2年内达到盈亏平衡。该行认为阿里巴巴是AI时代核心受益者之一，并有望受益于潜在的增量消费刺激政策。
该行基于SOTP估值微调目标价至157.0美元（前值：157.7美元），对应16.9倍FY25E non-GAAP市盈率，维持“买入”评级。
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