金吾财讯 | 东吴证券研报指，农夫山泉(09633)中国软饮龙头，包装水+饮料双引擎发展。基本盘方面：包装水刚需高频，渗透率仍处提升通道。2018年~2023年中国包装水市场规模CAGR约7%，横向对比看，23年我国人均饮用量显著低于美日韩，伴随场景扩容及人均消费量提升，市场规模仍有增长空间。饮料市场稳定扩张，细分赛道景气延续。根据灼识咨询，2018-2023年中国饮料市场规模CAGR为4.0%，受消费者健康观念影响，无糖茶实现快速增长，2018~2023市场规模CAGR近30%，横向对比看，24年无糖茶渗透率从7.7%提升至15.2%，但仍远低于日韩，伴随需求转变（无糖茶已从“解渴替代品”升级为“健康生活方式标配”）、消费群体扩容，渗透率有望进一步提升。该行提到，本轮价格竞争是龙头基于份额增长的诉求主导，回溯来看，过往价格战结果多为龙头在价格竞争和份额提升中获得动态博弈平衡，该行认可公司在低景气度时推出绿水收割份额，中长期视角下，包装水渗透率仍有提升空间、饮料细分赛道景气延续，产品推新培育、渠道网络布局、品牌心智占领仍是竞争胜负手，看好公司作为优质龙头中长期价值。该行预计2025~2027年营收495、552、608亿元，同比+15.4%、11.6%、10.1%，归母净利润141.5、159.8、178.5亿元，同比+16.7%、12.9%、11.7%，对应PE为25/22/20倍，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
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