金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中国财险(02328)公布1Q25业绩预告，归母净利润同比增长80%-100%至106-117亿元，环比增长95.3%-117%。一季度净利润占去年全年净利润逾1/3，得益于1)1Q25大灾损失减少，带动承保综合成本率在去年高基数下同比改善，大幅提升承保利润。据国家应急管理部数据披露，今年1-2月自然灾害导致的直接经济损失累计达93亿元，较去年1-2月207亿元同比下降55%；2)总投资收益随公司资产配置结构优化显著改善；公司持续加大权益资产配置，稳健提升FVOCI资产配置占比，以平衡市场波动下资产公允价值变动对投资收益的影响。1Q25沪深300指数/上证综指累计下跌1.2%/0.5%，略弱于去年同期，但以成长为主的结构性行情显著，利好基金持仓收益上行；此外，1Q25恒生指数/恒生中国指数大幅上涨15%/17%(1Q24:-3%/+1%)，或带动港股投资中TPL股票价差收益及OCI股票股息收入的增长。考虑到投资波动的影响，该行小幅调整FY25-27EEPS预测3%/1%/-1%至1.62/1.76/1.91元和FY25E车险及非车承保综合成本率至95.9%/99.0%(前值:96.0%/98.9%)。维持公司“买入”评级，目标价15.80港元，对应1.19倍FY25EP/B；公司目前交易于1.06倍FY25EP/B。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.