【基本面与关税战博弈下乙二醇后市预期】金十期货4月18日讯,供需情况来观测,乙二醇此波跌势明显与之背离。国产开工率来看,随着4月份国内装置检修产能增加,开工率已经从上月高峰期下降了4%左右的水平,另外中美关税的影响下,进口乙烷完税价格大幅增加,目前国内有两套乙烷制乙烯的装置,涉及产能200多万吨,其上游的成本的变化导致后期开工情况存在不确定因素。进口货方面,中东、美国装置进入集中检修季,加之关税问题或影响美国货源进口,2024年以来,美国乙二醇进口量维持在7-8万吨每月,约占总进口量的12%,以上因素对5月份以后的进口量产生较大影响。需求端来看,随着上游原料PTA和MEG的下跌,加工费出现了明显好转,聚酯开工情况维持良好运行,在91%以上,产能基数扩大等因素影响,目前下游聚酯对乙二醇需求量增加明显。中辉期货分析师苏日嘎拉图认为,乙二醇呈现供减需增状态,关税的影响暂未向上游传导下,乙二醇去库预期存在。乙二醇在宏观预期悲观的情况下,市场出现了逆供需面下跌的走势,然而外围影响不确定因素较多,一旦宏观环境企稳,乙二醇出现补涨的空间较大。
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