金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视“做大做强国内大循环”，采取以旧换新补贴扩容、特定群体补贴、类“消费券”政策等政策组合提振内需，关注受益内需政策加码的航空、物流和区域集运龙头。
1）航空：面对显著上升的采购成本，该行预计国内各航司将暂停波音飞机的引进计划，假设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划，则该行测算2025/2026年三大航的机队增速或降低1.5pcts/2.1pcts至2.9%/2.9%。若假设延迟波音的退出计划叠加航材采购成本上升，该行预计2025年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~2%。关税反制进一步限制航空业供给，票价拐点渐近，国际油价下跌释放利润空间，关注五一前航空布局机会。
2）物流：以旧换新国补扩容及潜在的消费刺激政策有望传导至需求端，选取品类相关度高的顺周期龙头。
3）区域集运：复盘历史，积极的财政政策有望推动大宗商品需求的修复，2024年内贸行业CR3接近80%，预计需求变化将传导至运价端，同时潜在转运需求有望传导至亚洲区域集装箱船东，建议关注受益于内需修复弹性的内贸集运龙头、以及潜在转口受益标的。
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