金吾财讯 | 古茗(01364)午后维持高位，截至发稿，涨11.64%，报19.76港元，成交额9734.88万港元。海通国际研报指出，虽然门店布局区域化，但公司现存门店质量很高，2023年加盟商店均年经营利润达到37.6万元，经营利润率20.2%，是行业均值的1.5-2.0倍。作为中国现制饮品中门店数仅次于蜜雪冰城和瑞幸咖啡的品牌，古茗供应链基础扎实，运营效率高，且发展空间大。根据灼识咨询数据，按2023年GMV计，古茗是中国第二大现制茶饮店品牌，市场份额为9.1%；若按价格带划分，古茗是中国最大大众现制茶饮店品牌，市场份额为17.7%。该行预计公司2025-27年收入各108.4/128.4/144.2亿元，经调净利各18.8/21.9/23.8亿元。参考可比公司，基于古茗相对高成长性和行业领先地位，以及门店快速拓展带来的规模效应、盈利改善，给予古茗2025年25XPE，对应合理目标市值506亿港元，合理目标价为24.2港元（对应汇率为HKD/CNY=0.93）。首次覆盖给予优大于市评级。
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