【黄金成为全市场最闪耀的星】金十期货特约光大期货点评：今日黄金占据期货市场涨幅榜首，2506合约迎来27.75亿资金流入，上涨4.13%至831.42元/克。1. 先来看看背后的直接导火索，随着越来越多的迹象表明美国经济存在衰退风险，特朗普再次督促美联储主席降息，他重申美国国内通胀微乎其微，直呼应立即降息，不然经济要放缓，加剧了投资者对美联储独立性和经济前景的担忧。另外，二季度美债市场存在较大兑付担忧，特别是特朗普关税政策搅动下，美债抛售风险反而大幅增加，周一晚上美元资产再现股债汇三杀，市场避险资金涌入黄金市场。2. 再来看看美联储议息会议的降息概率，市场预计5月维持利率不变，6月降息25基点，降息利好正在临近。据CME“美联储观察”显示，5月维持利率不变的概率为96.3%，降息25个基点的概率为3.7%，到6月维持利率不变的概率为22.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为75.0%。3. 综合来看，金融市场波动幅度加剧，投资者对黄金的避险属性变得更加青睐，注意历史新高下的黄金很难去“量化”高度，维持左侧多头交易，止损位上移至 3200 美元/盎司。
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