By Elena Vardon

BNP Paribas is scheduled to report results for the first quarter of 2025 on Thursday. Here is what you need to know:

REVENUE: The French bank is expected to report 12.95 billion euros ($14.79 billion) in revenue for the three months ended March 31, according to a company-compiled consensus based on 12 analysts' estimates. This would be an increase from the 12.48 billion euros it reported for the same quarter in 2024.

NET INCOME: According to the same consensus, the lender's net income could amount to 2.94 billion euros, short of the 3.10 billion euros posted for the comparable quarter the year prior.

While shares in the lender gained almost 30% over the first quarter of the year, the stock suffered heavy declines amid the tariff-triggered market selloff in early April, paring its year-to-date gains to 7.5%. Shares traded at around 74 euros on Wednesday afternoon.

WHAT TO WATCH:

-- The recovery of BNP Paribas' retail banking activities in the eurozone will be watched. Also in focus will be the strength of its revenues in its corporate and investment bank as momentum in its global markets division is expected to offset the effect of slower corporate activity in its global banking unit.

-- The increase in macroeconomic risks in the short term from the recession fears brought on by the tariff turmoil will lead investors to pay closer attention to the bank's position on costs and provisions. "We expect BNP to comment on how the current macro uncertainty is weighing on its business, but we think the strong diversification profile of BNP should help it be relatively more resilient than the average bank," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients.

-- The market will watch how the bank's common equity tier 1 ratio--a key measure of balance sheet strength--for the quarter compares against its 12.3% target, given the impact of its acquisition of HSBC's private bank in Germany and that of its deal for AXA Investment Managers. More clarification on the capital treatment in the latter transaction is also expected.

-- The group should reiterate its 2025 and 2026 targets, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.

-- While no fresh news in terms of capital distribution is expected, the bank could provide more details on the timing of the 1.08 billion euro buyback program it announced at its full-year results, which it said would be launched during the second quarter.

Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 23, 2025 10:04 ET (14:04 GMT)

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