• TI shares jump 5% after market hours

• Results allay tariff concerns but too early to determine full impact, analysts say

• Company could rely on China-based capacity amid trade tensions, CEO says

April 23 (Reuters) - Texas Instruments TXN.O forecast second-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, betting on robust demand for its analog chips even as the threat of U.S. tariffs has stoked uncertainty across the semiconductor industry.

The outlook, the first from a major U.S. chipmaker this earnings season, sent TI shares up 5% in after-hours trading. The stock had fallen over 17% so far this year, weighed down by macroeconomic jitters and trade tensions.

TI expects revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion for the June quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $4.10 billion, according to LSEG data. Earnings per share are projected between $1.21 and $1.47, also above estimates.

"Cyclical demand recovery and possibly some tariff pull-ins" are driving the upbeat forecast, said Kinngai Chan, senior analyst at Summit Insights Group.

Still, CEO Haviv Ilan sounded a note of caution. "We will have to see what happens" in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, he said on a post-earnings call, pointing to ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy.

While President Trump has for now exempted semiconductors from additional levies, Beijing has placed high tariffs on U.S.-made chips, according to a notice from the main Chinese semiconductor association earlier in April.

Analysts pressed Ilan on whether customers were stockpiling chips ahead of expected levies. "I would guess that at time like this, when there is a little bit of anxiety, do you want to have a little bit of more inventory on your shelves?" he said.

It might still be too early to ascertain the impact of increased levies and escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions on the company and the broader chip industry due to pending tariff negotiations, Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg noted.

CHINA WOES

TI, which has significant manufacturing capacity in the U.S., typically derives about a fifth of its annual revenue from China, making it vulnerable to the ongoing tit-for-tat tariffs between Beijing and Washington.

The company could rely on its fabrication facility based in China if needed, Ilan said.

Legacy chipmakers have for years worked to adopt a "China-for-China" policy, setting up fabs in the country to address domestic demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

However, TI has been facing tough competition in China where domestic chipmakers, buoyed by state subsidies, have ramped up production of mature-node semiconductors.

"The competition in China is intensifying," Ilan said.