金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利发布研报，给予IBM(IBM)“与大市同步”评级，目标价237美元。大摩预计IBM第一季度财报/第二季度指引将符合预期，并预期其2025财年营收增长（按固定汇率计算超5%）和自由现金流（135亿美元）指引维持不变。大摩略微下调了IBM咨询和基础设施业务预期，但在软件业务驱动增长的情况下，该行认为IBM仍能保持短期避险资产地位（尽管估值偏高）。大摩预计软件业务的有机前景将略有改善，混合云平台提前收尾，DataStax 和 Hakkoda 的收购，以及外汇阻力略有缓解，这些基本抵消了该行适度下调的咨询业务和基础设施业务预期——既包含DOGE削减预算因素，也反映更疲软/波动宏观环境对IBM部分周期性业务的影响。尽管当前股价已充分反映上述预期——IBM股票交易市盈率达20.5倍，创历史新高，且PEG比率显著高于大型软件公司及AI领域同行。该行仍认为在当前市场环境下，即使面临咨询与基础设施业务逆风，以当前估值水平呈现"符合预期"的季度表现，对投资者而言已具备足够吸引力。
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