Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.75 billion, indicating 16.4% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.57 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s first-quarter earnings has moved up 3.8% in the past 60 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 2.2%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What the Zacks Model Unveils for AJG

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Arthur J. Gallagher this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Arthur J. Gallagher has an Earnings ESP of +0.53%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.59 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.57. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: AJG carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors Likely to Shape Q1 Results of AJG

Better performances in both segments are likely to aid AJG’s first-quarter results. New business, solid retention and higher renewal premiums across its business lines are likely to have benefited the first-quarter performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fees is pegged at $1 billion, indicating an increase of 12% from the prior-year period’s reported number. The consensus mark for commissions is pegged at $2.3 billion, implying 14% growth from the prior-year period’s reported number.

New business wins, outstanding retention and increases in customer business activity are expected to have favored the Risk management segment.

Continued strong customer retention, higher new business generation and increasing renewal premiums, an improvement in interest income earned on own and fiduciary funds are expected to have benefited the Brokerage segment.

Increased commissions and fees, higher supplemental revenues and improved contingent revenues and investment income, as well as strategic mergers and acquisitions, are likely to have driven the top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

Total expenses are likely to have increased mainly because of higher compensation, reimbursements, interest, amortization and changes in estimated acquisition earnout payables. 

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +0.80% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.34, indicating an increase of 8.8% from the year-ago reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CBOE’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

Assurant, Inc. AIZ has an Earnings ESP of +1.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $3, indicating a decrease of 37.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

AIZ’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Lemonade, Inc. LMND has an Earnings ESP of +3.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 94 cents, indicating a decline of 40.3% from the year-ago reported figure.

LMND’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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