【检修搭配出口预期好转，PTA增仓上行】金十期货特约光大期货点评：自上周五夜盘以来，聚酯板块集体上行，原料端的PTA一改往日低迷，出现增仓上涨，盘中涨幅超2%。究其原因，美国关税战自4月2日起，目前暂告一段落，随着美政府态度软化，市场也出现快速响应，风险偏好回升，聚酯出口预期得到提振，叠加节前终端补库，聚酯产销好转，上周聚酯开工依旧在93.9%的高位，情绪因素主导今日盘面出现反弹。基本面来看，截至4月25日，PTA开工负荷78.9%，月环比下降1个百分点。PTA 5月仍处检修季，5月份约有2085万吨/年产能有检修计划，涉及PTA月损失量在111.3万吨，且检修计划落地的可能性较大。在供给缩量的预期下，PTA供需宽松的格局或相应收紧，库存存在下滑可能。在此情况下，现货基差明显上行，加工费有所修复，基本面边际转强。不过，目前下游涤丝产销整体偏弱，五一节前存在部分放量，聚酯工厂原料库存持续攀升，绝对量为五年同期高位，后续若关税扰动持续，需求端的负反馈仍可能卷土重来，需谨慎对待短期PTA的上涨持续性，同时也需关注PTA装置检修落实情况，以及原料价格波动情况对盘面的影响。
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