By Adam Whittaker
BP is scheduled to report results for the first quarter on Tuesday. Here is what you need to know:
PROFIT FORECAST: BP's underlying replacement-cost profit is expected at $1.53 billion, according to a company-compiled consensus. It booked $1.17 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $2.72 billion in the first quarter last year. Underlying RC profit is BP's main profit metric and is similar to net income reported by U.S. oil companies.
NET PROFIT FORECAST: Analysts expect BP to swing to a net profit of $1.55 billion from a $2 billion loss in the preceding quarter when it booked $1.5 billion in impairments, according to a consensus compiled by Visible Alpha.
As of Friday's close, BP shares were down 7.3% since the start of the year and down nearly 31% in last 12 months.
WHAT TO WATCH
--Market watchers will be looking for evidence that BP is delivering on its reset strategy. Investors will want to see earnings growth, progress on asset sales, a clearer picture of BP's debt trajectory, as well as evidence that it is taking steps to replenish its oil reserve base, UBS analysts wrote in a recent note.
--Analysts regard BP's quarterly share buyback as among the most vulnerable in the sector to weaker oil prices. It could fall to $750 million from $1.75 billion in the prior quarter, before dropping to $500 million from the second quarter, the UBS analysts wrote. Under a prolonged $60-dollar-a-barrel scenario it could even be cut completely, BofA analysts wrote.
--BP's spending and cost saving measures will be in focus, especially after activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company with the intention of pushing for significant changes.
--Investors will examine BP's debt levels after it said debt rose by $4 billion over the quarter. BP expects the increase to largely reverse but Barclays analysts say it has come at a bad time given the need for strong balance sheets in the volatile trading environment.
Write to Adam Whittaker at adam.whittaker@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 28, 2025 04:11 ET (08:11 GMT)
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