It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the NZME Limited (NZSE:NZM) share price down 15% in the last month. But that doesn't undermine the fantastic longer term performance (measured over five years). Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 374% in that time. So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. While the returns over the last 5 years have been good, we do feel sorry for those shareholders who haven't held shares that long, because the share price is down 30% in the last three years.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about NZME. View them for free.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

NZME has made a profit in the past. However, it made a loss in the last twelve months, suggesting profit may be an unreliable metric at this stage. So we might find other metrics can better explain the share price movements.

In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think NZME will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of NZME, it has a TSR of 625% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that NZME shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 31% over the last year. That's including the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 49% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for NZME you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.