弗格森定律

虎嗅
28 Apr

一英国历史学家尼尔·弗格森,在其研究中提出了一个观察性结论:当一个帝国的债务利息支出超过其国防开支时,这往往标志着其衰落的开始,或伴随着全球地缘政治秩序的不稳定。也被一些人称为“弗格森定律”或“弗格森警告”。这个观点主要源自弗格森对历史帝国(如英国、奥斯曼、罗马等)的财政与军事支出结构的研究。他指出:当国家财政负担加重,尤其是利息负担压过了用于维持全球秩序(即国防)的支出时,就会削弱国家维稳和投射...

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