美国第一季度经济出现萎缩！
30日，美国第一季度GDP出炉，第一季度GDP季调后环比折年率初值为-0.3%，创2022年第二季度以来新低，意外陷入萎缩。美国金融交易和预测市场平台Kalshi目前预期今年美国经济衰退的概率为74%，经济衰退风险激增。
此外，美国4月ADP就业人数增加6.2万人，为2024年7月以来最小增幅，大幅低于预期，预估为增加11.5万人，前值为增加15.5万人。数据显示出在经济不确定性中对工人的需求减弱。虽然ADP数据显示招聘有所回落，但失业救济申请仍接近疫情前的平均水平，表明裁员仍然处于低位。经济不确定性，包括特朗普关税影响以及消费者对未来一年失业率上升的担忧，可能导致未来几个月劳动需求减弱。
受此影响，美股期指跌幅扩大，纳指期货日内跌1.39%，标普500指数期货跌0.95%，道指期货跌0.45%，美债收益率短线走高，10年期国债收益率日内涨逾1bp，现报4.181%。纽约铜期货跌幅扩大至6.5%。
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