花旗发布研报称，中国石油股份(00857)2025年第一季度净利润468亿人民币，同比增长2%，超出该行对其预测的中单位数百分比下降及对比中石化(00386)同期约25%降幅。展望次季受油价下跌拖累但天然气业务提供缓冲，评级“买入”，H股目标价8.2港元。

该行认为业绩相当出色，尽管实现的油气价格分别同比下降8%和3%，勘探与生产(E&P)及天然气营销的息税前利润(EBIT)仍分别同比增长7%和10%。这反映了稳健的成本控制(E&P开采成本同比下降6%至每桶9.8美元)及整合的天然气业务模式，而下游(炼油、化工)利润率表现继续优于中石化。

花旗称，随着2025年4月至2026年3月更为有利的年度天然气合同修订生效，该行预计中石油的国内天然气单位EBIT将保持稳健，进口天然气亏损将进一步缩窄，因进口天然气价格可能从2025年第二季度起开始下降。结合8%以上的稳健股息率和正向自由现金流，中石油仍是该行首选的中国油气公司。

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