汇丰环球发表研究报告，指中国神华(01088.HK) 首季纯利按年跌18%至119亿元人民币，符合该行预估，但逊市场预期。剔除一次性项目盈利按年跌逾30%。疲软业绩受煤炭开采、电力事业和运输板块销量和价格下滑拖累，与当前黯淡的宏观环境有关。
该行维持此前观点，认为煤炭价格第二季将继续下降，平均按季跌10%，按年跌20%。主要因素是库存，北方港口库存仍按年高出35%。需求方面，洪水季节水力发电及可再生能源产量强劲增长，以及中美贸易冲突下工业需求持续受压将逐渐显现。供应方面，尽管上月内地煤炭日产量达最高水平，且中国燃料煤现货价格年内已跌20%，但内地尚未出现供应端调整，尽管进口增长已放缓。
该行下调对神华今年盈利预测10%，反映更低煤炭平均售价和销量假设，H股目标价由30元降至25元，评级由“持有”降至“减持”。该行认为神华当前估值较高，市盈率及市净率均比过去三年平均值高出约1个标准差，当前股息率亦处过去五年底部水平。(fc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-28 16:25。)
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