高盛发表报告，指招商银行(03968.HK) 首季拨备前经营溢利及纯利分别按年跌4%及2%，逊该行预期。业绩主要受净息差降幅较该行预期高4基点，以及投资收入较该行预期少19%影响。
该行指招行季度银行贷款按年升5%，低于系统贷款增长的7.4%。即使首季债券收益率上升，公允价值计入其他综合收益(FVOCI)仍按年升31%，表明贷款增长放缓有助资本积累。该行料随着债券收益率下降，随着增加债券投资，债券投资回报有望改善。此外，招行贷款准备金计提按季增86%，非贷款资产准备金计提按季降72%。不良贷款增长速度超过贷款增长，表明不良贷款形成率略升，资产质量面临挑战。
该行认为招行首季业绩好坏参半，在可能的下行周期中展现纪律性，例如贷款增长放缓和对贷款计提更多准备金，但首季贷款增长低于指引，表明未来数月贷款增长将加速，关税政策影响却可能削弱信贷需求，从而恶化资产质量。季度每股盈利按年跌2%，银行需提高派息率维持全年平稳的每股股息。
该行维持对招行“买入”评级，基于招行提升股东回报的能力及潜在的消费金融复苏，H股目标价为47.62元。(fc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-29 16:25。)
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