智通财经APP获悉,媒体记者从中物联钢铁物流专业委员会调查、发布的钢铁行业 PMI 来看,2025年4月份为50.6%,环比上升4.6个百分点,连续3个月环比上升,且5个月以来首次回升至扩张区间,显示钢铁行业运行有所好转。
分项指数变化显示,钢铁供需均有上升,钢厂库存加快消耗,但钢材价格震荡走弱,原材料价格继续下行。
预计5月份,钢市需求将继续回暖,钢厂生产持续上升,原材料和钢材价格将低位回升。
中国钢铁工业协会党委副书记、副会长兼秘书长姜维 29 日在北京举行的信息发布会上表示,一季度,钢铁生产总体保持稳定。数据显示,一季度,全国粗钢产量 2.59 亿吨,同比增长 0.6%;生铁产量 2.16 亿吨,同比增长 0.8%;钢材产量 3.59 亿吨,同比增长 6.1%。
中信证券认为,预计 2025 年是中国钢铁行业的拐点年份。2025 年一季度有望成为钢铁行业长期业绩拐点。随着行业改革的深入,产能产量的持续性削减将势在必行。供应端有望带来产量超预期收缩。同时随着钢铁行业“推进整合重组,推动落后低效产能退出”的持续推进,预计产业链利润将持续进行再分配,而钢铁行业将在再分配中受益。
当前在估值底部和产业即将持续利润再分配的阶段是钢铁行业的黄金配置时期。
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