花旗发表报告，料市场对中国银行(03988.HK) 首季业绩反应负面，基于季度税后利润按年跌2.9%逊预期。
该行指，中行仍具备实现全年盈利增长的良好条件，但中行拥有更大的海外业务敞口，并服务国际贸易客户群，可能面临多项挑战：包括美国关税升级导致国际贸易减少，令费用收入承压；关税不确定性或阻碍企业海外扩张或资本支出计划，减少海外贷款增长；鉴于中行或拥有比同业更大的出口导向客户群，资产质素压力或加剧。该行认为中行对比其余内地大型国有银行，受中美关税升级的盈利风险更大。
花旗考虑到注资导致8.5%股权稀释，中行H股今年预计股息率可能仅为5.3%，对比六大行平均5.4%并不突出。如美国经济衰退情景实现，且美联储加速减息周期，基于对比同业更大的海外贷款组合，中行可能面临更大的净息差压力。
该行目前予中行H股“买入”评级及4.53元目标价。(fc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-30 12:25。)
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