Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Cocoa Inflation ...

GuruFocus.com
30 Apr
  • Revenue Growth: 3.1% increase driven by strong pricing execution in the chocolate business.
  • Organic Net Revenue: Grew 3.1% with a volume mix decline of 3.5 points.
  • Free Cash Flow: Generated $800 million in the quarter.
  • Chocolate Revenue Growth: 10.1% increase with a volume mix decline of 5.7%.
  • Biscuits and Baked Snacks Growth: 0.3% increase, impacted by retailer destocking in the US.
  • Gross Profit Decline: 12% decrease due to significant cocoa inflation.
  • EPS Decline: 18% decrease in constant currency.
  • Store Expansion: Added more than 100,000 stores in emerging markets in Q1.
  • Share Repurchase: $1.5 billion in stock repurchased at an average price of $57.91.
  • Emerging Markets Revenue Growth: 3.9% increase with a volume mix decline of 3.7%.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with BHE.

Release Date: April 29, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) reported a 3.1% growth in organic net revenue, driven by strong pricing execution in the chocolate business.
  • The company generated $800 million in free cash flow during the first quarter.
  • Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) gained market share in both volume and value across several markets, particularly in the chocolate category.
  • The company successfully implemented planned pricing across key markets with minimal disruption, especially in Europe.
  • Mondelez International Inc (NASDAQ:MDLZ) made significant progress in sustainability, sourcing 91% of cocoa volume for its chocolate business through the Cocoa Life program.

Negative Points

  • Volume mix declined by 3.5% due to elasticity from chocolate pricing and retailer inventory destocking.
  • North America experienced a 3.6% revenue decline, primarily due to retailer destocking and softer consumer demand.
  • The US biscuit business faced challenges with lower consumption driven by declining consumer confidence and value-seeking behavior.
  • Emerging markets showed softness in India and Southeast Asia, impacting overall growth.
  • The company faced significant cocoa cost inflation, which negatively impacted gross profit and EPS.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you provide more detail on trends in key regions for the year ahead? A: Dirk Van De Put, CEO: Despite external changes, we feel positive about the start of the year. In Europe, we successfully negotiated price increases with minimal disruption. Our chocolate business, especially in Europe, is on track with strong activations and RGM activities. Easter was late this year, affecting Q1, but we expect strong results in Q2. Emerging markets, particularly China and Brazil, continue to perform well. North America was softer than expected, with retail destocking impacting results. However, we are gaining share in many markets globally.

Q: What are the key factors to consider for the rest of the year, especially in North America and Europe? A: Luca Zaramella, CFO: We are affirming our 2025 guidance and feel good about our plan. Key positives include successful customer negotiations and pricing execution across markets. Easter season was strong, with share gains in Brazil and Australia. Biscuits are holding up well outside North America. Challenges include consumer sentiment in the US impacting categories, but we are gaining share. Trade destocking is a one-time impact, and we expect an acceleration in top line and volume mix in Q2.

Q: How are you balancing strategies to mitigate cocoa inflation, and is there potential to adjust RGM actions? A: Dirk Van De Put, CEO: Our strategy includes aggressive RGM, offering a range of pack sizes, strong activations, and new product launches like Cadbury Biscoff. Pricing negotiations have gone well, with elasticity in line with expectations. We are monitoring consumer reactions closely and maintaining share gains. If cocoa prices remain high, we may need more RGM actions. Agility is key, and we are focused on long-term category health.

Q: Can you clarify the impact of Easter timing on chocolate elasticity and volume? A: Luca Zaramella, CFO: Easter timing affected Q1, but pricing is kicking in from April to June, leading to expected revenue growth acceleration in Q2. Easter volumes held up well despite price increases, with strong performance in Europe, Brazil, and Australia. We are protecting key price points in markets like Brazil and India, expecting minimal elasticity going forward.

Q: What is driving the destocking in North America, and how does it affect your DSD system? A: Dirk Van De Put, CEO: Destocking is mostly in food and mass channels, where retailers manage stock levels through orders. DSD helps execution but doesn't prevent destocking. It's more pronounced in these channels, and we expect the dynamic to subside, helping improve volume growth in the second half of the year.

Q: How did profit dollar generation exceed expectations in Q1, and what is the outlook for the rest of the year? A: Luca Zaramella, CFO: Upside came from better pricing, productivity ahead of schedule, and favorable commodity procurement. We are happy with our current position, and while tariffs may add pressure, they are manageable. We focus on gross profit per kilo and expect a strong position for earnings growth into 2026.

Q: What are your thoughts on the US snacking market's underperformance and emerging markets' growth? A: Dirk Van De Put, CEO: US snacking categories are down due to consumer uncertainty and prioritization of essentials. Health and wellness trends are also impacting snacking. In emerging markets, we expect acceleration in the second half, with strong growth in China and improving trends in India, Brazil, and Mexico.

Q: How are you managing cocoa market volatility, and what are the implications for your business? A: Luca Zaramella, CFO: We expect a supply increase and demand pressure to impact cocoa prices positively. Our goal is to maintain elasticity and gross profit dollars. If cocoa prices decrease, it will allow us to expand gross profit and reinvest in the category. We are well-positioned for growth into 2026, regardless of cocoa price movements.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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