What Happened?

Shares of identity management software maker Okta (OKTA) jumped 8.9% in the afternoon session after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the company would be added to the S&P MidCap 400 before trading opens on Thursday, May 1, 2025. Being included in the index means that Okta will likely be held by many mutual funds and ETFs, which could potentially drive up demand for the stock. 

We note that while buying of the stock could increase, this development does not change the fundamentals of the company. Revenue growth, expense efficiency, and capital intensity of the business, for instance, are not impacted by index inclusion or exclusion, so this is more of a technical tailwind for the stock.

The shares closed the day at $112.56, up 7.4% from previous close.

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What The Market Is Telling Us

Okta’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 11 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 6 days ago when the stock gained 6.6% on the news that President Trump clarified that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a statement that helped calm markets. Earlier remarks had sparked fears of political interference in decision making at the central bank. With Trump walking back his earlier comments, investors likely felt more assured that monetary policy decisions will continue to be guided by data, not drama. That kept the Fed's word credible, and more importantly, gave investors a steadier compass to figure out where rates and the markets were headed next. 

Adding to the positive news, the president made constructive comments on US-China trade talks, noting that the tariffs imposed on China were "very high, and it won't be that high. ... No, it won't be anywhere near that high. It'll come down substantially. But it won't be zero." 

Also, a key force at the center of the stock market's massive two-day rally was the frantic behavior of short sellers covering their losses. Hedge fund short sellers recently added more bearish wagers in both single stocks and securities tied to macro developments after the whipsaw early April triggered by President Donald Trump's tariff rollout and abrupt 90-day pause, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. The increased short position in the market created an environment prone to dramatic upswings due to this artificial buying force. A short seller borrows an asset and quickly sells it; when the security decreases in price, they buy it back more cheaply to profit from the difference.

Okta is up 44.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $113.88 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $116.72 from March 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Okta’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $761.43.

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