优然牧业(09858)早盘涨超5%,截至发稿,股价上涨4.83%,现报2.39港元,成交额2195.05万港元。
国泰海通发布研报称,近期多地推出生育补贴细则,部分乳企自发提出生育补贴计划,有望推动奶粉、液奶等品类景气度修复,加速原奶行业供需缺口收敛过程。考虑乳制品行业处在供给、需求、库存三重底,存栏去化是本轮周期供需缺口收敛的重要驱动力,内需及生育相关政策催化下景气有望更快改善、将加快这一进程。
华西证券则表示,展望今年奶价,我们认为供给端出清或将持续,需求端随各项政策落地而逐步恢复,奶价拐点有望伴随中秋国庆“双节”消费旺季自25年下半年开启。中期来看,我们认为由于供给端产能去化后短期难以回补,未来2-3年或将维持紧平衡状态。优然牧业作为行业龙头企业,有望在本轮行业调整中受益,未来周期反转将释放较大弹性。
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