United States Steel Corporation X is set to release first-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on May 1.

U.S. Steel surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing once. X has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.4%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 48% in the last reported quarter. 

U.S. Steel’s shares have gained 18.5% over the past year, compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 35.1% decline.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do U.S. Steel’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for X is currently pegged at $3,621.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.9%.

Factors at Play for X Stock

Efforts to drive operational efficiencies and manage costs and higher volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2 (BR2) are expected to have aided the company’s performance in the March quarter. Weaker year-over-year prices and soft demand in Europe are likely to have affected performance. 

U.S. steel prices saw a sharp decline last year amid increased imports and weaker end-market demand. Benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices tumbled more than 40% last year to close near the $700 per short ton level from $1,200 per short ton at the beginning of 2024. 

The recent steel mill price hikes and the Trump administration's imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel imports into the United States have led to an uptick in HRC prices to above $900 per short ton. However, the full benefits of the price uptick are unlikely to be reflected in steel companies' first-quarter performance. Also, a significant recovery in steel prices is not expected over the near term, given the weak manufacturing and construction backdrop and a still-challenging demand environment.  

U.S. Steel, last month, said that its Flat-Rolled segment continued to perform well in the first quarter due to its commercial strategy and focus on operational efficiency and cost management. Logistics constraints in the mining sector are expected to have weighed on the performance. The Mini Mill segment is projected to show growth driven by higher volumes from Big River Steel and BR2. Demand remained weak in Europe, while the Tubular segment faced challenges from the delayed effects of a weak pricing environment.

Our estimate for first-quarter average realized price for the Flat-Rolled unit stands at $960, suggesting an 8.9% year-over-year decrease. The same for the Mini Mill segment is pegged at $797, suggesting an 18.4% decrease from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for average realized price per ton for the European segment is pinned at $760, indicating an 8.5% decline from the prior-year quarter. The same for the Tubular unit is $1,643, suggesting a 27.5% year-over-year decline.

United States Steel Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

United States Steel Corporation price-eps-surprise | United States Steel Corporation Quote

What Our Model Unveils for X Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for U.S. Steel this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for X is -2.79%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 48 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: X currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +3.67% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at $1.47.

ATI Inc. ATI, slated to release earnings on May 1, has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for ATI’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 58 cents.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +11.07%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 22 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

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United States Steel Corporation (X) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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