穆迪分析的Stefan Angrick在日本央行维持利率不变后指出，对于日本央行2025年是否加息，当前的关键在于“会不会加”，而非“何时加” 。日本央行下调了国内生产总值和通货膨胀预测，给出的理由是风险偏向下行。

　　“一年多以来，日本央行在沟通中始终坚称经济表现良好且处于改善状态，然而实际硬数据所反映的情况却与之相反，这种基调的转变值得关注。”这位经济学家表示。不过他也补充说明，这并不意味着日本央行已终止加息进程。当前通货膨胀显现出较强的粘性，若不是贸易领域存在极大不确定性，日本央行或将持续推进加息。

　　关于日本央行下一步行动的判断存在难度：日元贬值、通货膨胀加剧和/或工资增长态势向好，这些因素可能促使日本央行在今年再次加息。反之，若上述情况未出现，加息则更有可能在明年或后年，具体时间将取决于全球贸易局势的发展。

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