Call it "strike two" for Intuitive Machines (LUNR 1.58%).

I was probably as excited as any other space investor when, early last year, Intuitive Machines landed a U.S. spacecraft on the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years. Like many other space investors, I shrugged off the fact that the company's Nova-C class lunar lander didn't exactly "stick the landing," instead toppling over and ending up on its side. It was their first attempt, after all, and they did at least get the spacecraft down in one piece, even if not entirely vertical.

That was then, though, and this is now. One year after its first attempt, Intuitive landed a second Nova-C on the Moon in March. And just like the first lander, this one too ended up on its side, suggesting there may be a flaw in the lunar lander's design, in its software -- or both. Investors are understandably disappointed in the company's technical performance, and Intuitive stock is down nearly 40% over the last couple of months as a result.

And yet, I'm still convinced Intuitive Machines stock is a "buy." Here's why.

Third (and fourth) time could be the charm

Why is that? Listen, I won't sugarcoat the company's troubles. I won't call them "failures," but I certainly can't call these flubbed landings "successes." They are serious setbacks for Intuitive Machines. The company's at real risk of squandering its lead in the race to establish a track record for successful delivery of payloads to the Moon for NASA, especially given that its rival Firefly Aerospace nailed its Blue Ghost Mission 1 landing on the Moon just days before Intuitive not-quite-failed.

As a result, NASA now has two lunar landing companies to choose from in awarding future contracts, only one of which has a 100% successful track record on Moon landings.  And it isn't Intuitive Machines.

That said, NASA has already gone ahead and awarded Intuitive Machines two more landing contracts, which give the company two more chances to work the bugs out of its lander, its software (or both). So long as it doesn't squander the opportunity, there's every reason to believe Intuitive Machines can still win this space race. And if it succeeds, there's every reason to believe the company will win even more landing contracts from NASA, keeping this Moon-landing business up and running.

But that's not all. In fact, it's not even the most important reason why investors should want to own Intuitive Machines stock.

Rocket carrying a dollar sign goes to the Moon.

More than just a one-trick pony

The most important reason to be optimistic about Intuitive Machines stock is the fact that NASA awarded the company a much bigger $4.8 billion contract to build and operate a space communications network between Earth and the Moon for the next 10 years. When that contract was first announced, it sparked a four-month stock-price run that lifted Intuitive shares as high as $23 a share, nearly three times what the stock sells for today.

And that contract has absolutely nothing to do with whether Intuitive's landers land straight up or face-plant when they reach the Moon. It's a completely different line of business and worth a lot more money to Intuitive than it will get from launching landers to the Moon at $100 million a pop.

A few thoughts on earnings

Intuitive Machines reported first-quarter earnings more than a month ago, meaning investors still have a couple of months to wait before the next earnings report rolls around -- probably on or about May 14. (In 2024, May 14 was the date the company reported Q2 earnings. Although Intuitive hasn't announced a date for this year's Q2 report, logically, it should arrive around about the same date as last year.) 

Once that earnings report does come out, I'll personally be very interested to hear what management has to say about any efforts it's making to re-design Nova-C to ensure that the "third time's the charm," and its next landing attempt in 2026 will be more successful than its two previous tries. But I'll be even more interested in hearing about the company's timeline for rolling out its Near Space Network for NASA and starting to rake in revenue for providing communications between Earth and the Moon.

I won't be the only one listening in, however, and my hunch is that, so long as management gives good answers to both questions, its stock will perform well even in the absence of profits (which no one is expecting Intuitive to report for another couple of years after all). In the meantime, I plan to spend the next couple of months waiting and watching for pullbacks in the stock, such as the big one we saw recently when the stock market panicked over President Trump's tariffs plan.

It's precisely because I expect Intuitive Machines stock to go up after earnings that I want to buy the stock on the cheap before those earnings come out.