It's nice to see the CNFinance Holdings Limited (NYSE:CNF) share price up 27% in a week. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. In fact, the share price has tumbled down a mountain to land 78% lower after that period. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$12m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Looking back five years, both CNFinance Holdings' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 41% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 26% compound annual share price fall. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into CNFinance Holdings' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of CNFinance Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
CNFinance Holdings shareholders are down 55% for the year, but the market itself is up 11%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that CNFinance Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are concerning...
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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