As you might know, Ladder Capital Corp (NYSE:LADR) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$51m missed by 14%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.09 fell short of forecasts by 20%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Ladder Capital, is for revenues of US$251.9m in 2025. This implies a measurable 2.8% reduction in Ladder Capital's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.8% to US$0.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$269.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.71 in 2025. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the solid gain to to the earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Ladder Capital

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$12.67, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Ladder Capital analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ladder Capital is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Ladder Capital's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ladder Capital analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Ladder Capital that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.