Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$4.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.51 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that MGM Resorts International is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, MGM Resorts International's 19 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$17.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 9.5% to US$2.24 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.31 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for MGM Resorts International

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$45.96, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MGM Resorts International at US$59.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MGM Resorts International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MGM Resorts International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MGM Resorts International. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MGM Resorts International's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MGM Resorts International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MGM Resorts International has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.