The "Buffett 8": These Stocks Could Easily Make Berkshire Hathaway's Buy List

Dow Jones
02 May

Warren Buffett has long complained that Berkshire Hathaway $(BRK.A)$ $(BRK.B)$ has become so huge that it's difficult to find acquisitions that are both undervalued and large enough to make a material difference to the company's bottom line.

Buffett's remarks at Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Neb., this Saturday may shed some light on whether the current investment landscape is attractive. (Berkshire made it clear that two topics won't be discussed: politics and what the company is buying and selling.) Berkshire does have money to spend - it had a record cash position of $334 billion as of the end of last year.

That said, 10 large-cap stocks satisfy a complex algorithm that picks stocks that would match Berkshire Hathaway's long-term return. The company already owns two of them, leaving eight that would be appealing opportunities for anyone with an investing mindset similar to Berkshire Hathaway's.

The study that devised this complex algorithm was published in 2018 in the Financial Analysts Journal. Entitled "Buffett's Alpha," the study was conducted by three principals at AQR Capital Management, each of whom has strong academic credentials: Andrea Frazzini, David Kabiller and Lasse Pedersen.

Although the algorithm is complex, conceptually it is relatively simple: Stocks satisfy the algorithm if they simultaneously have low price-to-book ratios and betas and also high dividend-payout ratios and profit growth rates. For the table below, I applied the algorithm, as faithfully as possible, to stocks in the S&P 1500 index (courtesy of FactSet data).

A total of 59 stocks made the cut. There are 49 stocks on the list - that is, 78% - with market caps smaller than $10 billion (the cutoff I used for a stock to be considered a large cap). This distribution skewing toward smaller stocks confirms Buffett's belief that his job would be a lot easier if Berkshire Hathaway were not so large.

Ten of the stocks have market caps above $10 billion. Two are already in Berkshire's investment portfolio: Citigroup (C) and Kraft Heinz $(KHC)$. The other eight are listed in the table below.

Call them the "Buffett 8": They are Duke Energy $(DUK)$, Valero Energy $(VLO)$, Fifth Third Bancorp $(FITB)$, Steel Dynamics (STLD), Healthpeak Properties $(DOC)$, J.M. Smucker $(SJM)$, Jones Lang LaSalle $(JLL)$ and Coherent $(COHR)$.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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