Odaily星球日报讯 比特币有望在美国经济衰退成为“基准情景预期”的情况下获益。多个消息来源对美国经济和美联储持悲观态度，交易资讯平台 The Kobeissi Letter 指出，美国一季度 GDP 增速意外转负，叠加贸易关税政策可能加剧通胀，美联储陷入两难。其必须在遏制通胀与失业率间抉择，降息幅度和时间成关键。不降息会削弱 GDP、增加失业率，立即降息又恐通胀反弹，美联储面临滞胀与全面衰退的双重威胁。 Kobeissi 称美国经济衰退成基准预期。芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 工具显示，市场对美联储政策预期保守，2025 年前难有大变。市场认为 FOMC6 月会议或降息 0.25%，5 月可能性仅 3%。加密市场参与者正权衡美联储政策走向，知名交易员 Skew 称降息概率上升，形势紧迫，美联储更关注经济疲软。加密交易员 Michaël van de Poppe 认为经济衰退传闻增多，会强化美联储放松政策的论点，届时市场流动性增加，风险偏好或提升。（Cointelegraph）
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