金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中国人寿(02628)1Q25 净利润和净资产增长超出预期。保险服务费用下行，主要因健康险赔付率改善及1Q25利率上行对分红险CSM释放提升的波动影响。该行预计健康险赔付改善有望持续，但利率在4月再次下行，可能导致分红险保险服务费用在1Q25降幅基础上出现一定回补。该行指，寿险新业务价值(NBV)可比口径下小幅提升 4.8%，略低于同业，新单保费同比下降 4.5%，隐含价值率小幅提升。该行预计 25 年 NBV 增速为14%，新业务价值率持续改善。投资层面，1Q25 债券市场利率回升，但A股权益市场小幅震荡；交易类债券的公允价值波动或干扰公司投资业绩。公司当前公司股价交易于0.24x FY25E P/EV, 0.65倍FY25E P/B，该行看好公司持续收窄的资负久期差和对存量业务的主动管理，利好在利率波动环境下净资产增长和新业务价值率改善。该行维持目标价20港元，对应0.4倍FY25E P/EV。维持买入评级。
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