Shareholders might have noticed that Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (NYSE:CHD) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.4% to US$92.94 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$1.5b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.89 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Following last week's earnings report, Church & Dwight's 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$6.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 45% to US$3.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.68 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Church & Dwight

The consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$101, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Church & Dwight analyst has a price target of US$120 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$72.12. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Church & Dwight's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Church & Dwight's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Church & Dwight.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Church & Dwight's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Church & Dwight going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Church & Dwight that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.