These Companies Are Emerging as Potential Winners in Trump’s Trade War

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Yesterday

This earnings season, companies in some sectors have started spelling out the potential financial impact of tariffs, while others have withdrawn their outlooks citing too much uncertainty

Consumer staples revenue typically holds up well in an economic slowdown, according to LPL Financial.Consumer staples revenue typically holds up well in an economic slowdown, according to LPL Financial.

The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping tariffs agenda is casting a long shadow over earnings season as companies wrestle with the unfolding trade war, but there are also glimmers of opportunity amid the uncertainty, according to LPL Financial.

Despite the market turmoil, names in some sectors are spelling out the financial impact of tariffs, while others have pulled their guidance, saying that the economic outlook is too uncertain. A handful of names have even cited potential benefits from the tariffs climate.

Set against this backdrop, Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, highlighted opportunities in a note released this week. He categorizes this current period as “phase one,” characterized as “peak uncertainty and peak tariffs,” with “phase two” the period “after the tariff dust settles.”

“We believe consumer staples, real estate, and gold are well positioned for the current phase of uncertainty,” wrote Buchbinder.

He acknowledged, however, that not all consumer staples companies will be immune.

Domestic packaged food companies are relatively insulated thanks to specialty crops such as tomatoes, strawberries, avocados and chocolate falling within the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, he said. “On the other hand, dollar stores and supercenters are not immune due to a reliance on goods from China and will be forced to raise prices or adjust supply chains after inventories are depleted,” Buchbinder added.

Buchbinder said empty shelves are a real risk, and that imports of alcoholic beverages and spirits could be a point of pain. He also mentions the impact of cumulative price increases, ongoing sticky inflation and elevated consumer borrowing.

“That said, given staples are more ‘needs’ than ‘wants’ and revenues typically hold up well in an economic slowdown, we’ll put consumer staples in the phase-one winner category,” he added.

However, Procter & Gamble Co., the parent of household brands including Pampers, Gillette, Crest and Tide,cut its earnings outlooklast week amid worries about higher prices from tariffs and a slowing economy. Toothpaste and soap maker Colgate-Palmolive Co. alsocut its guidancelast week.

Parts of the healthcare sector also stand to benefit from the current tariffs climate, according to LPL Financial.

“It would be logical to put the defensive healthcare sector among the phase one winners, but pharmaceuticals are in the crosshairs of the Trump administration’s trade policy,” wrote Buchbinder. “Sectoral tariffs could rattle the sector, pending successful country-level negotiations.”

However, the analyst sees opportunity around medical devices. “On the medical equipment side, tariff exposure is relatively limited, with the most exposed companies generating 12% or less of their revenue in China and most manufacturing housed in the U.S., so that group may be a phase one winner,” he wrote.

The healthcare sector has been breaking down the financial cost of tariffs in recent weeks.

Medical technology company GE Healthcare Technologies Inc. said earlier this week that the impact of the global tariffs war willcost it around $500 millionat current rates and cut its full-year profit outlook. And medical-device company Abbott Laboratories estimated recently that tariffs will cost it “a few hundred million dollars” this year, but reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

Last week, drugmaker Merck & Co. said that its reaffirmed 2025 outlook absorbs anestimated $200 millionin additional costs for already implemented tariffs. Medical-technology and drug company Johnson & Johnson estimated that tariffs could result inabout $400 millionin extra costs and raised its sales outlook.

Financials are also a phase-one winner because of the sector’s limited exposure to goods imports, according to LPL Financial, although cyclicality also makes them a potential winner in phase two.

For phase two, LPL Financial sees the communication services sector as a potential winner, with “honorable mentions” for technology, consumer discretionary, and industrials.

In communication services, LPL Financial points to solid first-quarter results from Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Netflix Inc.

“The key risk, beyond regulatory pressures on the big internet companies, is that tariff rates don’t come down as much as we anticipate, weighing on margins in this space, although the effects on the digital media segment of the sector are quite manageable,” Buchbinder wrote.

He believes the tech sector could easily grow earnings 20% this year as AI investment continues but says that technical analysis reveals a mixed picture. “The sector has underperformed since July of 2024,” wrote Buchbinder. “We also worry about semiconductor industry disruptions from U.S.-China trade tensions,” he added, noting that this has challenged Nvidia Corp.’s performance lately.

Software appears better positioned for this environment than semiconductors, according to LPL Financial. The financial services company also notes that tech giant Apple Inc. has significant operations in China that will not be cheap or quick to move away from.

Meanwhile, consumer discretionary, which sell what people “want,” is heavily impacted by the tariffs regime.

“Tariffs on apparel makers, autos, and home construction materials (primarily lumber) are particularly biting, while policy uncertainty has hurt consumer confidence and contributed to a slowdown in consumer spending,” wrote Buchbinder.

On Thursday car giant General Motors Co. slashed its profit guidanceand said that it expects tariffs to cost up to $5 billion.

Elsewhere in consumer discretionary, Coca-Cola Co. kept its full-year profit outlook intact and described tariffs as “manageable,” while rival PepsiCo Inc. cut its full-year outlook.

Household products maker Newell Brands Inc. said that tariffs could actuallybenefit its businessand maintained much of its 2025 outlook. Consumer-facing washer and dryer maker Whirlpool Corp. also said that it could be a “winner” under the new tariffs regime and kept its full-year guidance unchanged.

However, airlines are a different story, with American Airlines Group Inc., JetBlue Airways Corp., Delta Air Lines Inc., and Southwest Airlines Co. pulling their guidanceamid macroeconomic uncertainty.

LPL Financial acknowledges that, while consumer discretionary is one of the sectors hardest hit by tariffs, it makes sense that it would benefit if levies come down.

“But the uncertainty is still too high right now and a neutral stance seems prudent,” Buchbinder wrote.

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