Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to €26.10 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Aperam beat revenue forecasts by a solid 17% to hit €1.7b. Statutory earnings per share came in at €3.17, in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Aperam. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aperam from nine analysts is for revenues of €6.62b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 37% to €2.01 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €6.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.28 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Aperam

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €31.19, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Aperam, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €37.00 and the most bearish at €25.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aperam's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Aperam's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €31.19, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aperam. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aperam analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aperam has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.