Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were US$3.6b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.44, an impressive 163% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Estée Lauder Companies' 24 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$14.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Estée Lauder Companies is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$2.24 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$14.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.28 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Estée Lauder Companies

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$68.86, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Estée Lauder Companies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$56.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.6% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Estée Lauder Companies is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Estée Lauder Companies going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Estée Lauder Companies you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.