Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0158 ET - BASF's results should cause a muted share price response after the company stuck to its guidance following earnings that were slightly below consensus estimates, Jefferies analysts say in a note. The German chemical giant cautioned of an yet unclear tariff impact on the global economy. Its chemicals and materials unit sales were ahead of consensus, while its industrial solutions and agriculture segment lagged, they add.(helena.smolak@wsj.com)

0142 ET - Standard Chartered reported strong first-quarter results but the focus is on the new tariff world and its impact on earnings, J.P.Morgan Cazenove writes after the Asia and Africa-focused bank's print. Analysts calculate mid-single digit earnings risk largely in 2026 estimates. The lender said that its U.S.-related corporate income exposed to tariffs is limited at around $900 million, which is around 5% of its revenue. There is also a focus on the impact of the lower-rate environment, the indirect revenue effects from tariffs, potential overlay provisions and commercial and real-estate risk in unsecured books, analysts write. "We see the group well placed in the longer term to capture opportunities from changing supply chains and deeper capital/fx markets," they write. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0140 ET - Trade tariffs are leaving eurozone firms increasingly unwilling to invest, paving the way for a slowdown in growth, Melanie Debono at Pantheon Macroeconomics writes in a note. The 20 nations that share the euro got off to a robust start to the year with a 0.4% quarterly rise in GDP, figures this week showed. But a dialling back of investment among eurozone businesses looks likely to intensify, Debono says, citing Pantheon's gauge of capital expenditure in the manufacturing sector. Some sectors, such as autos, metals, and pharma, are benefiting from frontrunning as firms race to stock up ahead of the imposition of tariffs, and that might continue into the start of the second quarter, she says. But weaker investment, a result of the huge uncertainty tariffs create, will offset any boost to net trade, Debono says. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

2347 ET - The strong AI capital expenditure from Meta and Microsoft should dispel concerns about chip demand from TSMC, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a research note. Meta raised its full-year capex to between $64 billion and $72 billion while Microsoft suggested AI demand remains strong. MS expects cloud semiconductor revenue contribution to TSMC in 2025 to rise to 25% from 13% in 2024. Including networking chips and CPUs for AI servers, TSMC's revenue generation from AI should surpass 30% from 2025, they say. Meanwhile, the analysts think TSMC's $165 billion investment in the U.S. may raise the likelihood of tariff exemption, saying TSMC will likely transfer the cost from tariffs to customers, as those from the U.S. securing its Arizona fab 4nm capacity with higher price quotes, they add. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

2113 ET - Copper rises in the early Asian trade. There are signs of progress on trade deals between the U.S. and other nations, ANZ Research analysts write in a note. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council of the U.S., recently said that while China had acted poorly in the past on trade, he was hopeful about progress in trade negotiations. Copper prices are also supported by supply side issues, as two of Peru's biggest copper mines were disrupted by community protests this week, ANZ says. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.8% higher at $9,279.00 a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2004 ET - Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs and their aftermath prompt S&P Global Ratings economists to lower growth forecasts for most countries again. U.S. economic growth is tipped to fall to 0.9% on year in 4Q, flirting with recession along the way. S&P calculates that the U.S. will lose about 60 bps of growth over the next two years, with roughly two-thirds of that coming in 2025. It cuts eurozone 2025-2026 growth forecasts by 0.2% each, expecting additional tariffs on European exports and product-specific ones to reduce GDP by 0.4%. In emerging markets, open APAC economies like Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore will see the biggest decline in growth at 0.5-1.0 percentage points a year, S&P says. "We reiterate that there are no winners in a scenario of escalating protectionist policies." (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

1756 ET - Apple CEO Tim Cook says a majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. during the June-ending quarter will be sourced from India. "And Vietnam will be the country of origin for almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch and AirPods products also sold in the U.S.," he adds. The company has taken steps to diversify its supply chains following sweeping tariff actions under President Trump. Despite its diversification efforts, Cook says that China will continue to be the country of origin for the vast majority of Apple's total product sales outside the U.S. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1505 ET - Oil futures surge late in a choppy session as President Trump threatens secondary sanctions against any country buying Iranian oil or petrochemical products. "They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form," he posts on Truth Social. The Treasury Department has already sanctioned several Chinese refineries for buying Iranian crude, as well as numerous companies and vessels that transport the oil. The post boosted futures that were moderately higher in an up-and-down session amid market concerns about OPEC+ possibly deciding on further outsized production increases at its meeting on Monday. WTI settles up 1.8% at $59.24 a barrel, and Brent rises 1.8% to $62.13 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1419 ET - Political uncertainty is the largest hurdle facing alternative investment strategies such as buyout, private debt, venture capital and real estate during the next 12 months, according to 33% of the respondents to a survey that fund administrator Gen II conducted earlier this year. The survey polled 110 asset managers across the U.K. and the European Union, with about 25% of them, the second highest percentage, saying that a potential economic recession is the most significant threat to alternatives. "Fund managers are grappling with heightened geopolitical tension, fluctuating policy agendas and unpredictability in global politics-all of which can disrupt deal pipelines and investor confidence," Gen II says. (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)

1407 ET - While Cameco's uranium currently isn't being hit with the Trump administration's import tariffs, which exempt goods compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, CEO Tim Gitzel acknowledges a lot can change overnight. For one, Gitzel reminds investors the U.S. in April launched a fresh section 232 investigation on the risks of reliance on foreign sources of processed critical minerals which included uranium. A similar investigation in 2019 by Trump's first administration spared uranium, but Gitzel says the company in its wake proactively took steps to minimize potential future impacts such as adjusting and clarifying contract terms and positioning material well ahead of expected deliveries. "Those preemptive actions helped us prepare for the more recent threat of tariffs on Canadian nuclear fuel products, and we will continue to adapt accordingly and mitigate such risks in the future." (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

1343 ET - Mexico is poised to become the top destination for U.S. agricultural exports, and could surpass Canada to claim the top spot this year, CoBank says. Last year, U.S. food and agricultural exports to Mexico climbed to $31.4 billion, while Canada remained the top market, at $32.4 billion, CoBank's Knowledge Exchange says. Grain, feed, oilseeds and related products make up the largest category of U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico, and dairy exports continue to follow a pattern of rapid growth, CoBank says. Rob Fox, director of CoBank's Knowledge Exchange, says some risk factors are growing that could slow the pace of additional growth. "Mexico's economy has been slowing, and the unusually strong peso over the last couple of years has weakened by about 15% since early 2024," Fox says. CoBank is a cooperative bank serving industries across rural America. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)

1221 ET - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 1% at $9,214.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.9% at $2,413.50 a ton. Base metals have recouped some losses incurred in the prior session as traders took profits ahead of the Chinese public holiday,Britannia Global Markets' Neil Welsh says in a note. Copper remains caught between tight physical markets--particularly in China--and macroeconomic headwinds, Welsh says. Near-term supply concerns may offer prices some support, but a broader direction for metals will depend on the evolving demand picture, particularly with the U.S. reviewing potential copper import tariffs and broader global growth concerns, Welsh says. For now, the base case is for metals to trade in a narrow range, with heightened sensitivity to external shocks, he adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 02, 2025 01:58 ET (05:58 GMT)

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