LUNR vs. RKLB: Which Space Stock Is the Better Buy in 2025?

Zacks

11 hours ago

A potent mix of factors — rising geopolitical tensions fueling demand for defense-focused satellite systems, rapid digitization driving commercial satellite deployment, and growing government-private partnerships — is accelerating the space race like never before. Within this dynamic landscape, two standout contenders that are capturing market interest are Intuitive Machines LUNR and Rocket Lab RKLB.

While Intuitive Machines focuses on lunar access and exploration, offering lunar payload delivery, data services and in-space infrastructure, RKLB, on the other hand, is known for its vertically integrated space solutions, including small satellite launch services, satellite manufacturing and space systems. As both companies expand their footprints in the booming space sector, investors are likely to ask: which one is better positioned to capitalize on 2025’s growth opportunities and deliver long-term returns? Let’s do a detailed analysis to find an answer to the question.

Financials and Growth Outlook: LUNR vs. RKLB

Rocket Lab ended 2024 with a cash and cash equivalent of $419 million. Its current debt was $12 million, while its long-term debt totaled $404 million. So, we may safely conclude that the company holds a moderate solvency position, which should allow it to continue investing in innovative space technologies to support the manufacturing of components, sub-systems, and assemblies across the full range of its launch vehicles and spacecraft family.

The company was successful in bagging more than $450 million last year in newly secured launch and space systems contracts. This year, among the contracts that RKLB clinched, worth mentioning is its selection by Kratos Defense in April 2025 to launch a full-scale hypersonic test flight for the Department of Defense (“DOD”) under the Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonic Test Bed (MACH-TB) 2.0 program, which is worth $1.45 billion.

Moreover, in April, the company won a $5.6 billion award from the U.S. Space Force to compete for the DOD’s highest-priority national security missions for its National Security Space Launch (“NSSL”) Phase 3 Lane 1 program. Such contract wins bolster RKLB’s revenue growth prospects.

On the other hand, Intuitive Machines ended 2024 with a cash and cash equivalent of $210 million, while its current and long-term debts were nil. So, we may safely conclude that the company holds a solid solvency position, which should allow it to continue investing in new innovative space technologies to reap the benefits of the enhancing space economy.

Notably, LUNR is currently working on its largest lander, the Nova-M, designed to transport 5,000-7,500 kilograms of payload to the Moon’s surface. Upon launch, this innovation is expected to generate robust revenues.

Additionally, Intuitive Machines ended 2024 with a healthy backlog of $328.3 million, registering growth of 22% year over year and marking the highest backlog in the company’s history. This growing backlog reflects solid revenue-generation potential and underpins future earnings growth.

Key Risks: LUNR vs RKLB

Both Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab operate in a highly capital-intensive and technically complex industry, where execution missteps can significantly impact investor returns. For LUNR, the primary risk lies in its heavy dependence on NASA-funded programs and the success of its lunar missions. Any delay or failure in mission execution, such as what was seen with IM-1’s partial success, could threaten future contract awards and affect the company’s operating results. Further, LUNR is still in the preliminary stages of developing its full space infrastructure. If it fails to demonstrate the reliability of its products and services through a successful lunar landing or delays completing specific space missions, its results of operations might suffer.

A key risk of investing in RKLB lies in its high operating expenses, caused by investments in innovations like the Neutron launch vehicle, Electron’s first-stage recovery, advanced spacecraft capabilities and an expanded portfolio of components. These expenses often offset revenue gains, leading to losses, as evident from its recent quarterly reports.

Additionally, Rocket Lab is currently facing legal challenges, including a securities class action lawsuit alleging that the company misled its investors regarding the development timeline of its Neutron rocket, suggesting potential delays and financial concerns. These issues might affect investor confidence in this stock and the company's ability to secure future government contracts.

How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for LUNR & RKLB?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUNR’s 2025 sales implies a year-over-year surge of 19.2%, and the same for loss suggests an improvement. However, the stock’s bottom-line estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending downward over the past 60 days.