EMERGING MARKETS-Romanian assets slump, Taiwanese dollar steadies

Reuters
06 May
EMERGING MARKETS-Romanian assets slump, Taiwanese dollar steadies

Romanian assets slide after far-right leader wins first presidential vote

Central bankers in US, Brazil, Poland, Czech meet this week

South African rand strengthens after PMI hits neutral mark

Emerging market stocks, FX rise against weaker dollar

By Medha Singh and Pranav Kashyap

May 6 (Reuters) - Romanian assets slid on Tuesday after a far-right leader won the first round of the presidential election rerun, while other emerging market assets edged higher ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week.

In Asia, the Taiwanese dollar TWD=TP steadied following a record two-day surge, although the impact spread to Asian peers, lifting the Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS, Hong Kong dollar HKD=D3 and South Korean won KRW= as investors exited long-held U.S. positions.

"What would turbocharge this weakness is investors raising their hedges in anticipation of a weaker dollar," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Traders said "carry trades" - borrowing low-yielding currencies such as the yuan to purchase higher-yielding U.S. assets - were no longer profitable due to the dollar's recent fall.

Against a weaker dollar, MSCI's emerging market currencies index .MIEM00000CUS was up 0.1%, while the stocks' counterpart .MSCIEF firmed 0.3%.

Romania's longer-dated euro bonds tumbled and the leu RONEUR=R slipped 1.9% to below 5 per euro as hard-right eurosceptic George Simion decisively swept the ballot on Sunday, now facing an independent centrist Nicusor Dan in a May 18 run-off.

A Simion victory could isolate Romania, erode private investment and destabilise NATO's eastern flank, political observers say. Romania has the EU's largest budget deficit and risks a ratings downgrade to below investment level without a decisive fiscal correction.

"If a far-right candidate were to become president, Romanian external policy could become more problematic in case of an anti-European shift," said Unicredit Senior Economist Anca Maria Negrescu.

"There is a potential risk of some instability for the government, as it is currently based on a fragmented and narrow majority."

Romania's central bank said it was looking for the best way to counter what it called significant capital outflows.

Yields on Romania's euro-dominated bonds due 2049 and 2038 RO196870687=, RO176807431= were near one-month highs, while those maturing in 2050 RO210981314= hit the highest in 2-1/2 years.

Elsewhere, the Turkish lira TRYTOM=D3 slid to a fresh low ahead of a presentation from Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan to the parliament.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan held a telephone call on Monday that both leaders described as "very productive" and said they discussed everything from how to end Russia's war in Ukraine to Syria and the Gaza war.

The South African rand ZAR=D3 perked up 0.1% after data showed the private sector stabilised following a four-month downturn.

Investors were on the sidelines ahead of several rate-setting central bank meetings this week including in Poland, the Czech Republic, Brazil and the United States.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates when it announces its policy decision on Wednesday, while the Czech central bank is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points and Poland is likely to get a 50 bps cut.

By contrast, the central bank in Brazil is likely to extend its monetary tightening with a 50 bps rate hike.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Romania PM resigns after far-right wins first-round of president vote

** 'Asian crisis in reverse' as currencies soar on the dollar

** China's yuan jumps to 1-1/2-month high as carry trades unwind

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

Political pressure https://reut.rs/3RQ1Ofl

(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)

((Medha.Singh@thomsonreuters.com; +91 80 6210 0592; X, formerly Twitter: @medhasinghs;))

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